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Wind Crux LorraineTier 2

at Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals

decks
10 (9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
57 24-26-7
overall winrate
48.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.0% avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
50.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1364 · median 1393 · range 1141–1570 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033 Q1 1180 Q3 1399 1702
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 10% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 16.0% 12 4-6-2 41.7% 43.8% 41.7% -3.6
Wind Allies 13.2% 6 3-1-2 66.7% 60.0% 54.6% +2.5
Fire Luxem Assassin 12.3% 8 2-4-2 37.5% 41.7% 37.4% -6.0
Fire Umbra Ranger 9.4% 7 5-1-1 78.6% 68.2% 62.8% +6.4
Fire Aggro 7.5% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 63.8% +8.0
Fire Crux Mage 7.5% 7 1-6-0 14.3% 27.3% 24.1% -13.0
Fire Erupting 7.5% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.2% -0.5
Fire Arcane 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.9% +17.4
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.9% 0
Rogue 1.9% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 1.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 28.4% -20.7
Water Crux Mage 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 36.5% -21.7
Wind Arcane 1.9% 0
Fire Crux Hybrid 0.9% 0
Fire Diana 0.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.1% -19.0
Fire Neos 0.9% 0
Water Neos 0.9% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 0.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -0.9
Wind Beast 0.9% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.1% +14.6
Wind Neos 0.9% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.9% 0
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket.

Played more by winners
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers

No cards correlated with losing.

Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reclaim -0.33 0 1 2
Banner Knight -0.33 0 1 2
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.33 2 1 0
Hurricane Sweep +0.33 1 0 2
Fairy Whispers +0.33 1 0 2
Quicksilver Grail -0.33 0 1 2
Tariff Ring -0.33 0 1 2
Tactful Sergeant +0.33 1 0 2
Rally the Peasants +0.33 1 0 2
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.33 1 0 0
Cry for Help +0.33 1 0 0
Exorcise Curses +0.00 1 1 1
Crux Sight +0.00 1 1 1
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/1853/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine